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Investment Thesis

From Fragmented Agriculture to Scaled Value Chains

Agriculture remains central to Nepal's economy, but the real investment opportunity lies beyond production alone.

Investment Thesis2025 · 6 min read

Agriculture still matters profoundly in Nepal. World Bank data show agriculture, forestry, and fishing accounted for about 21.9% of GDP in 2024, which means the sector remains economically significant even as the wider economy diversifies. Yet that importance coexists with structural weakness: fragmented landholdings, thin downstream integration, uneven market access, and rising climate vulnerability.

That is precisely why the opportunity is larger than farming alone. Nepal's agricultural sector is often underestimated because it is still too frequently discussed in terms of acreage and output rather than integration and value capture. The stronger thesis is not simply more cultivation. It is better connectivity between production and markets: irrigation, aggregation, storage, cold-chain, processing, logistics, quality control, branding, and route-to-market infrastructure.

The policy direction is beginning to move in that same direction. Nepal's FY 2025/26 budget framed the sector under the heading 'Modernization in Agriculture: Transformation in the Economy' and explicitly emphasized commercialization, mechanization, food sovereignty, and bringing cultivable land into use through collective, cooperative, and private structures.

My own view is that the most compelling agricultural opportunities in Nepal will emerge where productivity, resilience, and commercialization intersect. That means integrated food systems rather than isolated farms; processing platforms rather than raw output alone; and businesses that solve logistics, aggregation, quality assurance, and market linkage rather than merely increasing production at the farm gate.